Tilly’s third quarter results were met with a positive market reaction, reflecting management’s focus on merchandise assortment, inventory discipline, and operational efficiency. CEO Nate Smith credited the return to positive comparable sales to a balanced mix of trend-relevant third-party brands and growing proprietary label penetration. The company also highlighted improvements in product margins, which CFO Michael Henry attributed to higher initial markups and reduced markdowns. Notably, store payroll efficiencies and lower fulfillment expenses supported margin gains, while e-commerce performance was shaped by a deliberate reduction in clearance sales, signaling a healthier full-price sales mix.
Is now the time to buy TLYS? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Tilly's (TLYS) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $139.6 million vs analyst estimates of $136.9 million (2.7% year-on-year decline, 2% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): -$0.05 vs analyst estimates of -$0.30 (83.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $7.94 million (5.7% margin, 164% year-on-year growth)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $148.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $146.1 million
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for Q4 CY2025 is -$0.16 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 51.6%
- Operating Margin: 5.3%, up from -9% in the same quarter last year
- Locations: 230 at quarter end, down from 246 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales rose 2% year on year (3.4% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $59.73 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Tilly's’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Matt Koranda (ROTH Capital): Asked about the driving force behind the return to positive comps and acceleration into Q4. CEO Nate Smith responded that both enhanced product assortment and improved marketing contributed equally to the performance, with CFO Michael Henry stressing the improvement was not promotionally driven.
- Matt Koranda (ROTH Capital): Inquired about the decomposition of comp growth—traffic versus ticket. CFO Michael Henry explained most gains came from higher conversion rates, average sale value, and transaction count, while store traffic remained roughly flat.
- Matt Koranda (ROTH Capital): Questioned the rationale and timing for higher private label penetration. Smith and Henry cited strong consumer demand for proprietary brands and indicated the planned shift would occur gradually, without significant disruption to store operations or third-party brand relationships.
- Matt Koranda (ROTH Capital): Sought detail on sustainability of SG&A reductions, particularly payroll and fulfillment. Henry pointed to ongoing productivity improvements and said future leverage depends on continued sales growth, with some headwinds from rising minimum wages.
- Matt Koranda (ROTH Capital): Asked about further store closures and capital impact of RFID investments. Henry stated store optimization would continue as leases expire, and RFID-related costs would not materially affect overall capital expenditures.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be following (1) the pace of proprietary brand expansion and its impact on product margin, (2) progress in AI-driven inventory and pricing initiatives, and (3) sustained improvement in same-store sales trends. We will also monitor how effectively Tilly’s leverages its new consumer segmentation to drive targeted marketing and assortment decisions.
Tilly's currently trades at $1.96, up from $1.81 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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